Clutch 12-2016: Entering the Land of Medicore

By now you likely have realized, and if not now you will, that Mr. Clutch likes the data analysis portion of baseball. This includes crunching stats, finding holes in the game, pointing out what are now relics and the latest – which is noting that being a great baseball player means being mediocre at best, from a generic statistical perspective.

You may be wondering what all this means. If you’ve been following and are hooked into the method and approach of the Clutch way, then you may know exactly where this is going. It’s going to prove out that when, if it has not already happened, a Martian shows up in Flushing he, she or it will be very confused as to why we believe baseball players are great athletes. Similarly we would be confused as to why those extra-terrestrials constantly where the same outfit; which as we know is the grey jumpsuit with the white boots (even after Labor Day).

Let’s peel the onion back starting with a look at some performance metrics. Do something good three times out of ten and you are great. Do it good three and a half times out of ten and you are phenomenal. Do it good four times out of ten, and the rumors start to swirl that you are cheating somehow because you joined an elite group – of which only has a few modern day era members. Do it once out of five times a day for a couple of weeks in a row and you will also be considered one of the best at it.

Flip the onion and say if you fail 70% of the time in a season you are just awesome. As a matter of fact if you can fail at it 70% of the time forever, you are now super awesome and heading to a hall. Of course we are talking about getting a hit in a professional baseball game. One of the few jobs that failure is not only an option, it’s the standard.

Stop growling; it’s known that hitting a 90 mph fastball isn’t easy. Besides that there are many factors that could tilt the scale one way or the other. Many factors have nothing to do with the quality of the game itself. “Hitter’s parks” like Colorado and the thin air have a say in this. There are also weather conditions, how wide foul territory is, turf versus grass for ball roll speed, the depth of the fences and even the 10^th man can get in the way (cue stadiums with diehard fans with big mouths and the infamous Steve Bartman).

More natural factors are things such as the pitcher that a hitter faces day in and day out. Maybe the poor guy gets Aces all the time and not anyone like the guys who toed the rubber for the Met’s in the 70s. What if the team stinks and doesn’t get on base enough to give the hitter reason to try harder. Or more common is not having protection in the lineup. A “Great” hitter, yes in quotes for a reason, won’t get anything good to hit if the guy after him isn’t.

To give a non-hitter example – look at Nolan Ryan. Arguably one of the best pitchers ever, but he spent many seasons with a losing record or at .500. In 1972 Nolan had a 2.28 ERA which was one of the best ever season ERAs at that time. He had 329Ks, also top top, but managed to lose 16 games. Nolan had almost the same stats for the next two years, with a sub three ERA, well over 300 Ks and 16 losses per year. Over the three year span he lost a shade under 50 games! Nolan played for bad teams that did not give him the run support needed to win.

Speaking of pitchers, they are also no stranger to mediocracy. Pitch well 33% of the time and you are an Ace. Win just a little more than you lose and you are a top of the rotation guy for most clubs. Strike out 20% of the batters you face, and you are Dr. K, or someone with a nickname with a K in the mix. Do it a lot and fans bring paper Ks artwork to the game and post them up every time you get one. If you happen to be left handed, then you can perform one click worse than everything above and be treated like you actually did better.

A sports radio commentator a while back had said that the baseball hall of fame should be renamed the hall of pretty good. The complaint is that players are being elected to the hall with less than stellar statistics. It could get to the point that if you just show up and hang around long enough you may have a shot. Yes, we know that hall of fame credentials is all about measuring consistency over a period of time and being dominant in your business during that period of time. Well, that’s the problem. If you can be just better enough than all the other shlubs out there, then you are the best and should be elected to the club. As an avid fan of the blog once put it (in a different context) like this: it’s the tallest midget theory.

Again, yes the job is hard. Got it. But, if your average person with your average job failed way more than they passed they would be what we like to call out of work and eventually unemployable. This happens to baseball players on occasion, but even the worse of the worse can usually catch on somewhere even if it’s a bench role. That is courtesy of this other thing somewhat exclusive to MLB which is guaranteed contracts. Stink all you want and still collect a very handsome paycheck.

There are a few cases out there where justice was sort of kind of served, though the players in question were greatly rewarded for being flat out awful. This was first heard about when the Arizona Diamondbacks wrote a $13mm check in order to have a player just stop showing up. That’s right $13mm to not play baseball. Anyone could do that! It sounded like an awful business decision until it was further explained. That guy is getting his check no matter what. Hell or high water as it’s put.  The money is lost now and forever. So instead of having a stiff take up a roster spot, cut him loose and bring someone else up. Actually kind of makes sense.

At the end of the day all players need to really do is have one “Good” year. This typically spins into the $100mm extended contract and no worries for many generations deep. Want an example of that? Take a look-se at Jason Heyward’s 2015 stats. Then glance over to the contract he signed in that off season. It’s sickening how an average player can be converted into the mega bucks. Clutch always wondered who is behind the curtain making those types of decisions. Maybe it’ the Martian!

Clutch 11-2016: Game Less Than Inches

Brought to fame and notoriety in the great Oliver Stone football movie “Any Given Sunday” was a couple of phrases. One of them of course being the title and the other was part of the speech given by Sharks head coach Tony D., played by the immortal Al Pacino.  The cliff notes version is that coach states that football, like life, is a game of inches. He says the word “Inch” 24 times in the speech. Of course that questions how many times it will be used here.

Though the analysis of football and inches is certainly accurate, it sort of kind of applies to all sports, though some more than others, and some where the inch(es) are smaller and have a larger impact of the game result. Knick fan probably remember the good time of that Allen Houston shot that danced on the rim for an eternity before falling in the basket and causing the team to win the first round of the playoffs and make it to the finals. No basket and they get eliminated. The same could be said for the Patrick Ewing “Finger-roll” play or the Charles Smith missed cupcake layup that costs the same team a playoff round win in various years.

Baseball is of course in this category as inches come into play in several ways, both from an offense and defensive perspective. Using the 10,000 feet view, losing a game in April because of one miscue play, ball bouncing left or the wind can lead to a team missing the playoffs and all the benefits that come along with that. Sometimes the inch, or less than, isn’t noticed because of its distance from the final result. There are certainly cases where it’s right there in front of your face.

Let’s first look at some real historical examples. There are literally thousands of examples, but for the sake of simplicity we will focus on one of Mr. Clutch’s favorite days, and a day subject to many of these blogs, October 25^th, 1986. A regular day to 99.99% of the general public and simply known as “Game 6” to the other 0.01%. On this historic day in Met’s (and Red Sox) history less than an inch decided the World Series, the future harassment of a player, created a hero and made a 17 year old fan pretty happy.

Mookie Wilson, Met fan favorite, stepped up to bat with two outs in the 10^th inning and the team down by one run. With the count 2-2, and the team down to their last strike, Mookie fouled off two pitches in a row. He kept the rally going and the Mets season alive by barely putting wood on the ball.  Those pitches likely just glazed the bat and were both a frogs hair away from a strikeout and a Red Sox World Series win which would of course end “The Curse”. Instead, there was a different destiny for Mookie and many others that day.

Bob Stanley stood to get the save in that game and become and instant Boston legend. Instead, after the Mookie two strike fouls offs, threw a wild pitch that tied the game. It was in inside pitch that caused Wilson to hit the deck. The pitch, which was “ball three”, was likely less than an inch away from the catcher’s glove. Just like that the game was tied. This scenario of course sits deep in the shadow of what was to happen next. Most amateur historians don’t realize that Stanley’s inability to throw a straight ball is really what caused the Sox collapse.

Any fan of baseball knows what happens next. After fouling off another series of balls, which again could of effectively ended the inning with a tie if those fouls are less than an inch misses, history would be made. It’s noteworthy that if the inning would of have ended in a tie the Met’s clearly would have the momentum heading into the next extra frame, but it still would have been anyone’s game. This is increasingly true because the Met’s star first baseman was sitting at the manager’s desk in the locker room getting loaded on Budweiser while this was all unfolding. A less than sober fielder may have swayed the advantage back to the opposition.

Mookie hits a bouncing ball down the first base line and the aging, broken down man with bad knees tried to make a play on the ball. Bill Buckner probably re-watched this play more than Clutch’s research department, or perhaps he never watched it all – but either way the result is the same. The ball, which appeared to have a mind of its own, snuck between Buckner’s right leg and glove, like a cat burglar through the night. The ball looked to glaze either leg or rawhide on its way to right field. Buckner became a goat and the most hated man in Boston with the possible exception of a star Laker. Less than an inch changed his life forever or at least until Bostonians would drop the grudge.

Game 7 had some, but not as much drama. The Met’s were down early, but nobody at Shea or home watching on TV was worried. Sure enough what really wasn’t supposed to happen did courtesy of less than an inch. The Met’s held on to win the World Series and the Red Sox did not. Dubbed as the best comeback in post season history, it was clear that a series of inch related events made that be.

Think about the post-game ramifications of under an inch here or there.  The famous Red Sox curse would be alive and well for another 18 long years. Evan then, less than an inch came into play. In the ALCS that year, the Yankees were up three games to none and looked like they were going to cruise to the World Series. Up 4-3 with two outs in the ninth of game four, the best closer in the history and future of baseball Mariano Rivera was on the hill. The result appeared to be more predictable than a cookie-cutter horror movie.

With a runner on first, Dave Roberts, now the Dodgers manger, was brought in to pinch run and immediately did that. He attempted to steal second and get in scoring position. Batting gloved hand reached the east side of the base a millisecond before fielding gloved hand swept across and made the tag. Less than an inch turned the final out into the start of a rally. The Red Sox would go on to win that game, and even more miraculously win the next three games to make the World Series.

The Red Sox, destined to set the Great Bambino trade to rest, blew out the Cardinals in four games straight and were finally World Champs. That said, life, like baseball is a game of inches.

Clutch 10-2016: MLB Boots an Easy Grounder – E6

Mr. Clutch is sorry for the late delivery of this week’s blog. Most likely everyone waits patiently in front of their device of choice for the voice “You’ve got mail” or hitting F9 until finally Inbox(1) is visually stated on the screen. The topic of this blog and most of the content was stashed away a while back. It was just a matter of typing it up, with this little thing called trying to change the world getting in the way and causing the delay.

It’s all good as we’re here now. The topic is a slight segue from an earlier e-mail thread about three glorious years of stolen bases by Vince Coleman. It brought up some other great names like Brock, LeFlore, Henderson and Raines. That got the wheels turning into the subject matter of statistics that are not dead, actually still alive, just flat out wrong. It’s an opinion backed here that certain maintained stats should be altered or removed from the archives.

First off is the “Sacrifice fly”, which off the top doesn’t seem to be an issue of controversy. Let’s start with the fact that nobody hits a sac fly on purpose. Hitters step into the box with the intention of getting a hit, not flying out to left. This is to not be confused with the “Sacrifice bunt” where there is clear intent. The fact that the at bat was not executed in the mindset of creating an out while moving runners should be enough to stop it right there. But wait there’s more. No hitter, unless facing the BP pitcher before a game, can purposely fly out deep into the outfield. There are more factors than we can count to say why that’s so. That’s even more reason that the player is not actually sacrificing anything.

The other part of this skewed and wrong stat is that the fly out in question requires a player to be on base and in position to advance. That runner also needs to have speed and the coordination to leave the base at the best time. It’s just another thing not controlled by the hitter. What’s the difference between player X flying out to deep left with a runner on third and player Y doing it with no ducks on the pond? The answer is luck and circumstance. A perfect real example is back in ‘81 when Mr. Clutch was the cleanup hitter for the St. Helen’s CYO team. A deep drive was hit to center field with his best friend on third prepping to tag. The putz trips halfway down the line and an obvious run scored just turned into a double play. Waive bye-bye to an RBI and hello to an AB to reduce the batting average. Thanks Ned.

Next up is a combination of questionable plays. It’s either the passed ball or the wild pitch, both of which are classified as an “Error”. We won’t address the obvious issue which is how it’s decided which is which. Sometimes it’s clear but other times it’s not. Anyway, the reason why this is another wrong set of stats is that both the wild pitch and passed ball are not done intentionally. Wait a minute; no errors are done intentionally, right? What’s the difference here? It’s clear as mud.

Here it is, and yes now it will sound obvious. If a WP or PB happens with nobody on base then it’s not a WP or PB. It’s nothing, and that’s because it didn’t cause any harm. It’s like the old adage of does a tree in the woods make noise when it falls absent of a witness, or something like that. The battery-mates error is only just that if a runner is on base and happens to advance as a result of the play. It’s a situational use of a rule. Hopefully you are thinking ahead and curious about a dropped fly ball in foul territory. That is an error because it prolongs the at bat. One can argue that if the WP/BP rule is valid, then the foul ball error should only be issued if the prolonged at bat ends up in a positive result for the hitter! The point on the willy-nilly use of the WP/PB rule is that Ed Lynch and Ron Hodges could have zero, fifty or five hundred wild balls, but nobody will ever really know.

There are a bunch of smaller issues with stats throughout the game that we can quickly touch on. A swinging strike, for example, is also a strike, even though the pitcher only throws that ball in the strike-zone some of the time. Same drill for balls hit in play, which are all considered “Strikes”, though many are not. It’s understood that it is a strike per the rules, but the pitcher still didn’t deliver a ball within the strike zone. If they wanted to perfect the stat, then they would use the computerized rectangle seen on the idiot box to determine if every pitch is a literal strike or ball.

The stolen base, referenced earlier, is a good stat but not without its flaws and is certainly far from pure. Mainly, part of the credit of the stolen base unofficially goes to the pitcher and catcher. All sorts of items factor in here like ability to keep the player on base, speed of delivery, catcher being in position, being able to make a fast accurate throw and finally the infielders ability to catch the throw and make the tag. Of course even if all that goes according to plan, the runner still needs to make it to the base.

Listen, no stats are perfect, and it’s understood that many of them come out in the wash. Meaning that over the course of time the stats will “Work themselves out” and every player “Does what he’s supposed to do”, based on the longer the past performance is. As a “Probability and Statistics” minor in college, Mr. Clutch is passionate about the accuracy and proper keeping of stats. Unfortunately MLB doesn’t feel the same way.  

Clutch 09-2016: The Best That Never Was (ever going to be)

Mr. Clutch recently saw two similar ESPN “30 on 30” documentaries that detailed the life and times of two NCAA running backs that were both touted as “The Best” to play the game in college at that time. They were Maurice Clarett and Marcus Dupree. The latter of the two was literally the best ever at the position and that episode dons a similar name used here, which is “The Best That Never Was”. Two similar types of stories of kids traveling down a path of imminent success until controllable factors and unguarded protection got in the way.

Now, there are a boat load of stories like this out there, some of which were also featured on the ESPN show. A few of them had an even more tragic ending. These were cases where rising stars died an untimely death before making it to the show. Any old sports fan probably can name a few off the tip such as Len Bias or Ben “Benji” Wilson. These are certainly the worst of the worst since death, though in some cases self-inflicted, is something that not even Houdini was able to come back from – even though he swore he would.

Not being the Grim Reaper, or even one to focus on total failure, the view here will be on professional baseball players that had the cup of coffee, and in some cases a full pot, but just never delivered on the hype that surrounded them.  The reasoning behind that was really just because they were never that good.  These players had a lack of sheer top-level talent and an excess of sales and marketing. They are all nothing short of a shame as these players probably *could* have lived up to their potential if they would have just better utilized the opportunity that was dropped in their lap.

First up was an upcoming star pitcher by the name of David West. At least that’s how the Mets brass sold it. They promoted this guy as the next big thing, and though never proven, it was really all a fugazi.  David spent his first six years in the minors, with his last being his only good one. It was a decent year in AAA, which is what drove his value up as a possible diamond in the rough. In very limited action with the big club he didn’t do much, yet the rumors of his skills continued. The Mets didn’t play him often at risk of him continuing to be bad which would lead to plummeting value. Instead, they held and kept his price artificially high.

West was arguably the key cog in a five-for-one trade that brought Sweet Music to Flushing. Yup, the Twins were the suckers that thought they were getting a young stud for Old Man River. Well, Viola worked out pretty good for the Mets, though a sidebar to the trade was that a “Throw in” of the five was mediocre pitcher Rick Aguilera who ended up being an iconic closer. The Twins lucked out there because West was a complete bust for them. Overall West had a pretty bad baseball career including a return back to the minors 11 years after his major league debut. The biggest sucker of all was the Phillies – who paid him $1mm in 1995 after coming off a 4-10 season the year previous.  West holds the dubious record of pitching to an ERA of infinity in the 1991 World Series.

Next up is Brad Pitt, played by Billy Beane. Actually it’s the other way around as featured in the movie “Moneyball”. Beane was supposed to be the Mets savior when debuting in 1984. For years previous to that he was touted as the Mets outfielder of the future, with some of those touters even putting him ahead of the great Daryl Strawberry.  Putting up decent minor league numbers, Beane only had 18 at bats as a Met before they pulled the plug. Talk about a short leash. He then played a half a season for the Twins via a Mets trade (Yes the same Twins that would trade for West a few years later!). Billy’s career ended with a cup of coffee with the Tigers and Athletics. 300 career at bats spanned over five professional seasons with way less than stellar stats.

Fortunately for Beane – he was way better of a baseball general manager than a player. He, in partnership with Paul DePodesta (Who? Exactly, no fame or credit), came up with the low cost high output A’s teams of the early 2000’s. It was the use of Sabermetrics and the crux of the movie starring Pitt and a bloated Jonah Hill (Hill played the DePodesta role under a fake name). Beane doesn’t exactly fit the bill of this subject matter, since he did end up as a success. But, he is a pretty good example of a top prospect who had one of the worst careers that was not plagued by injuries or any other factors. He just flat out couldn’t do it on the big stage.

Last but not least is a blast from the past who technically never played for the Mets. My guess is you will smile or laugh when you hear the name Shawn Abner. Abner was one of those classic #1 draft picks who some “Genius” in the Mets organization thought was the best player out there in 1984. Not to add insult to injury, but a few players you may have heard of were drafted way after Shawn. Jay Bell at #8, Mark McGwire was #10 and Terry Mulholland was the 24^th pick. Three players that far far and away had better and longer careers than the Mets pretty boy.

It was pre-internet days but the word on the literal street was the Abner was going to be a star. He was so good that while in AAA the Mets threw him in the mix of a deal known simply as the swap of left fielders named Kevin. The Mets sent Abner along with gang banger Kevin Mitchell to Padres for farmer Ted Kevin McReynolds. Both Kevins did more for the Mets in a single season than Abner would do in his entire short-winded career. Abner was an athlete, now doubt, just not a major league baseball player. Another #1 bites the dust.