By now you likely have realized, and if not now you will,
that Mr. Clutch likes the data analysis portion of baseball. This includes
crunching stats, finding holes in the game, pointing out what are now relics
and the latest – which is noting that being a great baseball player means being
mediocre at best, from a generic statistical perspective.
You may be wondering what all this means. If you’ve been
following and are hooked into the method and approach of the Clutch way, then
you may know exactly where this is going. It’s going to prove out that when, if
it has not already happened, a Martian shows up in Flushing he, she or it will
be very confused as to why we believe baseball players are great athletes.
Similarly we would be confused as to why those extra-terrestrials constantly
where the same outfit; which as we know is the grey jumpsuit with the white
boots (even after Labor Day).
Let’s peel the onion back starting with a look at some
performance metrics. Do something good three times out of ten and you are
great. Do it good three and a half times out of ten and you are phenomenal. Do
it good four times out of ten, and the rumors start to swirl that you are
cheating somehow because you joined an elite group – of which only has a few
modern day era members. Do it once out of five times a day for a couple of
weeks in a row and you will also be considered one of the best at it.
Flip the onion and say if you fail 70% of the time in a
season you are just awesome. As a matter of fact if you can fail at it 70% of
the time forever, you are now super awesome and heading to a hall. Of course we
are talking about getting a hit in a professional baseball game. One of the few
jobs that failure is not only an option, it’s the standard.
Stop growling; it’s known that hitting a 90 mph fastball isn’t
easy. Besides that there are many factors that could tilt the scale one way or
the other. Many factors have nothing to do with the quality of the game itself.
“Hitter’s parks” like Colorado and the thin air have a say in this. There are
also weather conditions, how wide foul territory is, turf versus grass for ball
roll speed, the depth of the fences and even the 10th man can get in
the way (cue stadiums with diehard fans with big mouths and the infamous Steve
Bartman).
More natural factors are things such as the pitcher that
a hitter faces day in and day out. Maybe the poor guy gets Aces all the time
and not anyone like the guys who toed the rubber for the Met’s in the 70s. What
if the team stinks and doesn’t get on base enough to give the hitter reason to
try harder. Or more common is not having protection in the lineup. A “Great”
hitter, yes in quotes for a reason, won’t get anything good to hit if the guy
after him isn’t.
To give a non-hitter example – look at Nolan Ryan.
Arguably one of the best pitchers ever, but he spent many seasons with a losing
record or at .500. In 1972 Nolan had a 2.28 ERA which was one of the best ever
season ERAs at that time. He had 329Ks, also top top, but managed to lose 16
games. Nolan had almost the same stats for the next two years, with a sub three
ERA, well over 300 Ks and 16 losses per year. Over the three year span he lost
a shade under 50 games! Nolan played for bad teams that did not give him the
run support needed to win.
Speaking of pitchers, they are also no stranger to
mediocracy. Pitch well 33% of the time and you are an Ace. Win just a little
more than you lose and you are a top of the rotation guy for most clubs. Strike
out 20% of the batters you face, and you are Dr. K, or someone with a nickname
with a K in the mix. Do it a lot and fans bring paper Ks artwork to the game
and post them up every time you get one. If you happen to be left handed, then
you can perform one click worse than everything above and be treated like you
actually did better.
A sports radio commentator a while back had said that the
baseball hall of fame should be renamed the hall of pretty good. The complaint
is that players are being elected to the hall with less than stellar statistics.
It could get to the point that if you just show up and hang around long enough
you may have a shot. Yes, we know that hall of fame credentials is all about
measuring consistency over a period of time and being dominant in your business
during that period of time. Well, that’s the problem. If you can be just better
enough than all the other shlubs out there, then you are the best and should be
elected to the club. As an avid fan of the blog once put it (in a different
context) like this: it’s the tallest midget theory.
Again, yes the job is hard. Got it. But, if your average
person with your average job failed way more than they passed they would be
what we like to call out of work and eventually unemployable. This happens to
baseball players on occasion, but even the worse of the worse can usually catch
on somewhere even if it’s a bench role. That is courtesy of this other thing
somewhat exclusive to MLB which is guaranteed contracts. Stink all you want and
still collect a very handsome paycheck.
There are a few cases out there where justice was sort of
kind of served, though the players in question were greatly rewarded for being
flat out awful. This was first heard about when the Arizona Diamondbacks wrote
a $13mm check in order to have a player just stop showing up. That’s right
$13mm to not play baseball. Anyone could do that! It sounded like an awful
business decision until it was further explained. That guy is getting his check
no matter what. Hell or high water as it’s put.
The money is lost now and forever. So instead of having a stiff take up
a roster spot, cut him loose and bring someone else up. Actually kind of makes
sense.
At the end of the day all players need to really do is
have one “Good” year. This typically spins into the $100mm extended contract
and no worries for many generations deep. Want an example of that? Take a look-se
at Jason Heyward’s 2015 stats. Then glance over to the contract he signed in
that off season. It’s sickening how an average player can be converted into the
mega bucks. Clutch always wondered who is behind the curtain making those types
of decisions. Maybe it’ the Martian!
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